2026 Set to Be One of the Four Warmest Years on Record, WMO Warns

The year 2026 is on course to become one of the four warmest years ever recorded, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned in a new report released as world leaders gather for the COP31 climate summit in Antalya, Türkiye. The finding confirms that the planet's long run of exceptional heat is not slowing down — and a powerful El Niño is set to push temperatures even higher into 2027.

A Planet Running Hotter Than Ever

Between January and September 2026, the global average surface temperature stood at about 1.47 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, measured against the 1850–1900 average, according to the WMO's State of the Climate Update 2026. That figure is close to the whole-year averages of 2025 (1.43°C) and 2023 (1.46°C), and only below the record set in 2024 (1.55°C).

The bigger picture is even more striking. The past four years — 2023 to 2026 — are now the four warmest years in the 177-year observational record, and the past 12 years have individually been the warmest on record. "The past four years have been the warmest in the 177-year observational record, and the heat in the oceans is breaking records for the tenth year in a row," said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. Europe's Copernicus Climate Change Service added that it is "virtually certain" 2026 will be the second year ever to cross 1.5°C, after 2024.

A Supersized El Niño Adds Fuel to the Fire

A major reason for the extra heat is El Niño, the natural warming of Pacific waters. The year began under cooler La Niña conditions, but El Niño took hold by June and became very strong by late August. Sea surface temperature anomalies in the key Niño 3.4 region jumped from 0.2°C in March to 2.5°C in August, and forecasts suggest they could reach 3.7°C between October and December — making this one of the strongest El Niño events ever recorded.

El Niño typically adds around 0.1°C to 0.2°C to annual global temperatures, and the WMO expects the current event to continue at least until February 2027. That means the heat is unlikely to ease soon. The World Health Organization has already classified the anticipated health impacts of this El Niño as a health emergency, warning of heat-related illness, food insecurity and the spread of water- and insect-borne diseases.

Oceans, Ice and Sea Levels Sound the Alarm

The warming is not limited to the air. The world's oceans are on track for a tenth consecutive year of record warmth, and the global mean sea level reached a record high in 2026. Greenhouse gas concentrations also hit new highs: carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide all reached record observed levels in 2025, with carbon dioxide at 426.8 parts per million — around 53 percent higher than pre-industrial levels.

The WMO says Earth's energy imbalance — the gap between the heat entering the planet and the heat escaping back to space — has reached its highest observed level. In simple terms, the planet is now retaining more heat than ever before, which drives melting glaciers, rising seas and more extreme weather around the world.

What Happens Next?

The report was deliberately released on the first day of COP31 so that negotiators in Antalya have the latest science in front of them as they debate how to speed up climate action. The WMO's final State of the Global Climate 2026 report, with full-year data, will follow in March 2027.

For now, the message from the world's weather agency is clear: the heat is not a one-year spike but a sustained trend, and every fraction of a degree matters for food, water, health and household costs across the globe.

Conclusion

With 2026 set to rank among the four warmest years on record, a record-strong El Niño still building and oceans warmer than ever, the WMO's latest report is a reminder that climate change is no longer a distant warning — it is the weather we are living through. The decisions taken at COP31 in the coming days will shape how the world responds to a planet that keeps getting hotter.

Do you think countries are doing enough to fight climate change, or is it time for faster and stronger action? Share your thoughts in the comments.